Richard C. J. Somerville will discuss a new scientific synthesis, “The Copenhagen Diagnosis,” which assesses recent climate research findings, including: measurements showing the Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheets are losing mass and contributing to sea level rise; Arctic sea-ice has melted far beyond the expectations of climate models; global sea level rise may exceed 1 meter (about 3 feet) by 2100, with a rise of up to 2 meters (6 feet) considered possible; in 2008 carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels were about 40% higher than those in 1990; and at today’s emissions rates, after just 20 more years the world will no longer have a reasonable chance of limiting warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit).

To avoid dangerous climate disruption, global emissions must peak and then start to decline rapidly within the next five to ten years, reaching near-zero well within this century. (The report is available at www.copenhagendiagnosis.org).

The Copenhagen Diagnosis was written by 26 climate scientists from 8 countries. Several of the authors summarized the report at a press conference at the Copenhagen climate negotiations in December, 2009. Somerville will discuss the outcome of these negotiations in the light of the most recent science.

Richard C. J. Somerville, a theoretical meteorologist, is Distinguished Professor Emeritus at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego. His Ph. D. is from New York University, and he has been a professor at Scripps since 1979. He has received awards for both his research and his popular book, “The Forgiving Air: Understanding Environmental Change,” a new edition of which was published in 2008. His honors include election as a Fellow of both the American Association for the Advancement of Science and the American Meteorological Society.